A new USA TODAY/Rock the Vote Poll of young voters, conducted by Ipsos, finds Hillary Clinton is continuing to build a lead over Donald Trump among Millennials.
Reported registration levels among Millennials have increased steadily since January, even as enthusiasm for the election has ticked down overall — despite the Clinton campaign’s concerted efforts to engage them. And interestingly, considering Clinton’s groundbreaking status as the first female presidential nominee of a major party, her support among Millennial men is significantly stronger than her support among Millennial women.
For Republican Donald Trump, all the news in the survey is bad. Only one in five likely voters under 35 support him, the lowest in modern times. Even a third of self-identified Republicans don’t support him.
Among the key findings:
- On the four-way ballot, Clinton is at 68%, Trump at 20%. Support for third-party candidates is ebbing. Libertarian Gary Johnson is at 8%, Green Party’s Jill Stein at 1%
- Enthusiasm about voting peaked in March, when Bernie Sanders was still on the ballot. Likelihood to vote dropped a bit in the August survey and a bit more in the October survey, even as the election neared and the Clinton campaign unleashed speeches and surrogates designed to energize younger voters.
- The negative tone of the campaign has had an impact. The number-one reason Clinton supporters give for backing her is “to keep Donald Trump out of the White House.” The number-one reason Trump supporters give for backing him is “to keep Hillary Clinton out of the White House.”
- The first two debates damaged Trump; a majority say they made him seem less presidential, credible and trustworthy. The debates boosted Clinton; a plurality says they made her seem more presidential, human, credible and accessible. But they didn’t make Clinton seem more trustworthy, a continued weakness for her.
- Only 47% of Millennial women support Clinton. They’re not particularly attracted to Trump, at 18%. But a combined 18% support Johnson or Stein. In contrast, 65% of Millennial men support Clinton. Just a combined 6% of men support the third party candidates.
- Millennial voters continue to identify jobs and the economy as the top issues for the next president to focus on. Among other key priorities identified by young likely voters are college affordability, health care, civil rights and foreign policy/terrorism.
”Hillary Clinton has consolidated record-breaking support among Millennials, but these findings raise a red flag for Democrats on the crucial question of whether they’ll show up to vote,” says Susan Page, Washington Bureau chief of USA TODAY. “The enthusiasm that Bernie Sanders’ presidential bid sparked continues to decline, and a growing percentage of younger voters say ‘my vote doesn’t matter.'”
“This is a turning point in the presidential election, and these results confirm that young people may take longer to reach a decision, but in the end are affirming our status as issue voters, rewarding candidates who speak to our issues,” said Jesse Moore, Rock the Vote Vice President for Civic Engagement. “Millennials are dialing into the election when it counts and preparing to make an historic impact up and down the ballot.”
On behalf of USA TODAY and Rock the Vote, Ipsos surveyed a sample of 1,020 adults age 18-34 from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii on October 11-13, 2016. The interview was conducted online in English. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of +/- 3.5 percentage points.
Read or Share this story: http://usat.ly/2eKqMwd